The use of commercial space services will increase in the next decade as technological advances make these services increasingly capable of supporting U.S. Department of Defense needs and augmenting its capabilities. Implications of these rising demands and congressional concerns about the integration of such services into military operations, including impacts on space operations and policy, are explored in this congressionally directed report.

Operational and Policy Implications of Integrating Commercial Space Services into U.S. Department of Defense Operations

Yool Kim, George Nacouzi, Dwight Phillips, Krista Romita Grocholski, Igor M. Brin, Brian Dolan, Jonathan Fujiwara, John Hoehn, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Gwen Mazzotta, et al.

ResearchPublished Feb 11, 2025

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the military services rely on a wide variety of space capabilities to carry out many of their missions — but the degree of use differs depending on the mission. The space industry is rapidly evolving with continual changes to markets, companies, and their offerings, and these market dynamics influence DoD decisions about the use of commercial space services, which is expected to increase in the next decade. Technological advances make these services increasingly capable of supporting DoD needs and providing valuable augmentation to the department's own systems and capabilities. Despite the benefits that commercial services can bring, DoD must consider the vulnerability of these commercial space services to adversary attack when determining how much to rely on them and what missions they should support. The research team explored six commercial space markets — satellite communications; space domain awareness; remote sensing; environmental monitoring; positioning, navigation, and timing; and space logistics — in this congressionally directed report, which focuses on the implications of these increasing demands for commercial space services on space operations and the national and international policy environment.

Key Findings

  • Commercial space services make considerable contributions to DoD missions. All military services use some level of commercial satellite communications (SATCOM) in their daily operations.
  • DoD's future use of commercial services will depend, in part, on how much DoD signals its intentions and needs for commercial space services — a demand signal companies will use to potentially expand capabilities of interest to DoD.
  • Commercial space services, if appropriately implemented, can significantly increase the resiliency of DoD space architectures.
  • It is unlikely that DoD will lose access to all commercially operated space systems because of the inherent resilience of individual company services and DoD access to multiple, independent providers.
  • DoD could mitigate the operational impact of losing commercial services by diversifying its space architectures; but mitigation measures need to be considered in the specific context in which commercial space services are used.
  • The Outer Space Treaty regime is dated, and enforcement mechanisms are weak; international governing efforts today focus on developing norms of behavior that are voluntary.
  • The consensus among policy, legal, and military experts is that a commercial satellite supporting military operations is a legitimate military target under international law.
  • In the Ukraine war, Russia has demonstrated its will and capability to interfere with commercial SATCOM services — a potential warning of what the United States should expect in a future conflict.
  • Commercial satellite operators supporting DoD are aware that they face threats from U.S. adversaries and would like to have more access to threat information.
  • Most commercial satellite insurance policies exclude losses occurring from acts of war and cyberattacks, and the insurance industry views cyberattacks as a growing threat.
  • Much work remains for DoD to operationalize the integration of commercial space services into DoD's space architectures.
  • A priority area for DoD is the development and advancement of commercial space integration strategies and policies that are better aligned with the pace of commercial development and the growing threat.
  • Successful implementation of commercial space capabilities will require synchronization of activities across the U.S. government and DoD components — including the possibility of legislative and regulatory actions and a stronger partnership with the commercial space industry.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2025
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 118
  • Paperback Price: $49.95
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1487-7
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2562-2
  • Document Number: RR-A2562-2

Citation

RAND Style Manual

Kim, Yool, George Nacouzi, Dwight Phillips, Krista Romita Grocholski, Igor M. Brin, Brian Dolan, Jonathan Fujiwara, John Hoehn, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Gwen Mazzotta, Jordan Willcox, Jonathan P. Wong, and Barbara Bicksler, Operational and Policy Implications of Integrating Commercial Space Services into U.S. Department of Defense Operations, RAND Corporation, RR-A2562-2, 2025. As of April 30, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2562-2.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Kim, Yool, George Nacouzi, Dwight Phillips, Krista Romita Grocholski, Igor M. Brin, Brian Dolan, Jonathan Fujiwara, John Hoehn, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Gwen Mazzotta, Jordan Willcox, Jonathan P. Wong, and Barbara Bicksler, Operational and Policy Implications of Integrating Commercial Space Services into U.S. Department of Defense Operations. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2562-2.html. Also available in print form.
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