Could the U.S. Navy Fleet of the Mid-21st Century Include Large Uncrewed Vehicles?

The maturation of uncrewed-vehicle technologies across multiple domains creates an opportunity to potentially revise the U.S. Navy's force structure in the coming decades. The goal would be to use these technologies to increase the fleet’s capabilities, capacity, survivability, and resilience in the face of near-peer competitors employing large numbers of precision weapons. In this paper, the authors briefly analyze ways in which the Navy's fleet could gradually be reshaped through the incorporation of uncrewed vehicles, thereby enhancing its ability to achieve its operational and strategic goals at acceptable risks and costs.

This paper was intended to provide some ideas for further analysis as part of much larger studies. The authors begin by considering what missions the Navy may need to achieve in the middle of the 21st century and beyond. Next, they analyze how the capabilities of uncrewed vehicles might help to gradually reshape the fleet structure to address those threats, taking into account the various advantages and disadvantages associated with uncrewed vehicles. Finally, the authors observe lessons from past naval technological transitions, notably the need for gradualism, to help inform potential adjustments as the Navy's force structure incorporates the capabilities of uncrewed vehicles.