Jonathan W. Welburn

Jonathan W. Welburn

Senior Researcher, RAND, and Professor of Policy Analysis, RAND School of Public Policy

Jonathan Welburn is a senior researcher at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at the RAND School for Public Policy. He uses methods from financial and computational economics, decision science, and risk analysis to analyze emerging systemic risks and the potential for market failures.  Along these themes, Welburn’s research has covered topics ranging from modeling systemic risk in global interfirm networks, the macroeconomic consequences of large cyber risks, and opportunities enhanced cyber deterrence.

Recently, Welburn has led several studies including the identification of systemically important entities, the evaluation of policy solutions for banked unbanked Californians, and efforts to mitigate risks in global supply chains.  Currently, Welburn is leading a wide-ranging effort aimed at rethinking social economic policy systems in an era marked by large and cross-cutting challenges, starting with the risks and opportunities of AI adoption.

His work has been sponsored by several federal agencies including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the Department of Defense, the Air Force, and the Army and has been published in RAND Reports, academic journals, and national news outlets including the Wall Street Journal, NY Times, and the LA Times.

In addition to his research at RAND, Welburn is a member of the Office of Financial Research's Financial Research Advisory Committee (FRAC), the Aspen Cybersecurity Group, the Society for Risk Analysis council, the Decision Analysis Society council, , and teaches computational economics at the RAND School.

Education

Ph.D. in decision science & operations research, University of Wisconsin – Madison; B.Sc. in industrial & systems engineering and economics, University of Wisconsin – Madison

Languages

French

Selected Work

  • Welburn, Jonathan W., Aaron Strong, Giovanni Malloy, Prateek Puri, James Syme, and Jessie Wang, The Global Economy at the Firm-Level: Estimating Input-Output Linkages in Production Networks and the Potential for Systemic Risk, RAND Corporation (WR-A2625-1), 2023
  • Welburn, Jonathan W., Robert Bozick, Maya Buenaventura, David Metz, Vegard M. Nygaard, Patricia K. Tong, Kelsey O'Hollaren, Jessie Coe, Jessie Wang, Lane F. Burgette, Katherine Obenschain, Jim Mignano, Shannon Prier, Natalie Cox, Chandra Garber, Anujin Nergui, Kami Ehrich, Elizabeth Marsolais, Samuel Absher, George Zuo, Rakesh Pandey, Lily Hoak, Nicolas M. Robles, and James Syme, Banking the Unbanked: CalAccount Market Study and Feasibility Assessment, RAND Corporation (RR-A3117-1), 2024
  • Bordeaux, John, Jonathan W. Welburn, Sasha Romanosky, Benjamin Boudreaux, Aaron Strong, Shannon Prier, Cheryl K. Montemayor, Jhacova Williams, Jessica Welburn Paige, Michael J. D. Vermeer, and Zev Winkelman, Identifying and Prioritizing Systemically Important Entities: Advancing Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience, RAND Corporation (RR-A1512-1), 2023
  • Jonathan William Welburn and Aaron Strong, "Systemic Cyber Risk and Aggregate Impacts,", 42, 2022
  • Jonathan W. Welburn, Justin Grana, Karen Schwindt, "Cyber Deterrence with Imperfect Attribution and Unverifiable Signaling," European Journal of Operational Research, 306(3), 2023

Authored by Jonathan W. Welburn

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