The authors describe a model for estimating the effects of climate change on the prevalence of four common chronic conditions and the resulting effects on demand for the drugs to treat them. The model can help inform policies for ensuring sufficient drug supply under various climate scenarios.

Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand

Mahshid Abir, Raffaele Vardavas, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Emily Hoch, Emily Lawson, Sydney Cortner

ResearchPublished Oct 4, 2024

It is anticipated that extreme weather events due to climate change will increase the prevalence of a number of acute and chronic diseases. As a result, the demand for drugs to prevent or treat those conditions is likely to increase. If the anticipated increase in demand for these drugs is not planned for, already strained medical supply chains will be further strained, resulting in poor health outcomes among affected patient populations and additional costs to health systems.

The authors of this report estimated how the anticipated effects of climate change on the prevalence of a sample of four chronic conditions — cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and Alzheimer's disease — will affect demand for the drugs needed to treat them (metoprolol, albuterol, heparin, and donepezil, respectively). To generate these estimates, the authors conducted an environmental scan of the peer-reviewed and gray literature and developed a medical condition–specific systems dynamics model. The model can help inform policies for ensuring drug supply under various climate scenarios.

Key Findings

As climate change intensifies, demand for the drugs studied will generally increase

  • Climate change may lead to an increase in demand for the CVD drug metoprolol across younger age groups because of higher CVD prevalence — but, under severe climate change scenarios, to a decrease in demand for metoprolol among older age groups because of higher mortality rates.
  • Demand for the asthma drug albuterol is likely to increase across most age groups because of a heightened prevalence of asthma.
  • Demand for the ESRD drug heparin — used in hemodialysis — is likely to increase across all age groups because of higher prevalence of ESRD.
  • Demand for the Alzheimer's disease drug donepezil is likely to increase among adults ages 55 and older.

The model can help avoid drug shortages

  • This and future versions of the model can be used to inform policies and innovations for mitigating climate change's impact on drug demand by ensuring sufficient drug supply under various climate scenarios.
  • The model's estimates can help inform development of proactive strategies for identifying supply chain risks and building supply chain resiliency — for example, through stockpiling and further diversification of both U.S.-based and non-U.S.-based supply chains for high-demand drugs.

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RAND Style Manual

Abir, Mahshid, Raffaele Vardavas, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Emily Hoch, Emily Lawson, and Sydney Cortner, Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand, RAND Corporation, RR-A3425-1, 2024. As of April 8, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3425-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Abir, Mahshid, Raffaele Vardavas, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Emily Hoch, Emily Lawson, and Sydney Cortner, Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3425-1.html.
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This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, and was carried out in the Payment, Cost, and Coverage Program of RAND Health Care.

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