Identification of Potential U.S. Air Force Skill Gaps
ResearchPublished Apr 16, 2025
In this report, the authors identify gaps between the knowledge, skills, abilities, and other attributes currently available among U.S. Air Force active-duty personnel and those that are needed to meet the demands of conflicts with peer competitors, as well as the potential impact of addressing each skill gap.
In February 2024, the Secretary of the Air Force announced proposals for changes to the Department of the Air Force to reoptimize the organization in preparation for potential future conflicts. The changes include structuring U.S. Air Force (USAF) operational wings as mission-ready units of action and developing Mission-Ready Airmen whose training focuses on the mix of skills needed for wartime operational mission readiness. This initiative will require the development of new training programs for airmen. Thus, USAF leadership wants to understand which skill gaps must be filled as the USAF transitions from its current organization to the new one.
In this project, the authors aimed to identify gaps between the knowledge, skills, abilities, and other attributes (KSAOs) currently available among USAF active-duty personnel and the KSAOs needed to meet the demands of conflicts with peer competitors. The authors used a mixed-methods approach, which included interviews, a modified-Delphi process, and analyses of USAF-developed training tables and plans, to address this objective.
The authors discuss the capability areas identified as critical for the USAF to effectively address future conflicts and the skill gaps that exist for these capability areas, as well as the potential impact of addressing each skill gap. The data suggest that the USAF should consider making training adjustments in some career fields to address apparent skill gaps.
Key Findings
- Subject-matter experts (SMEs) described five capability areas as critical for the USAF to effectively address potential future conflicts: (1) technological advancement (advanced aircraft and weaponry, long-range kill web), (2) multi-domain operational capability and adaptability (interoperability and communication, operational adaptability, rapid global mobility, flexibility in skill sets), (3) strategic decisionmaking (effective communication of strategic vision, understanding of the future warfare environment), (4) rapid and accurate intelligence operations, and (5) collaborative operations with allies.
- Of the five capability areas that they identified, the SMEs viewed multi-domain operational capability and adaptability as the most critical capability to address.
- The SMEs identified the skill gaps that exist for these capability areas and assessed the potential impact of addressing each skill gap. The SMEs rated operational experience in contested environments as having the highest impact and the integration of knowledge and skills from different career fields as having the lowest impact.
- The SMEs viewed knowledge of great-power competition as one of the most feasible skill gaps to address and stress management as the least feasible skill gap to address.
- Overall, the SMEs indicated that Air Force Specialty Codes, as currently structured, do not accurately reflect airmen’s existing skills and abilities; moreover, existing personnel databases and management systems do not comprehensively track airmen’s skills.
- Some personnel appear to receive training on low-risk tasks for which they are not expected to have a basic understanding. Conversely, those personnel do not receive training on high-risk tasks for which they are expected to have moderate to high levels of proficiency.
Topics
Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Year: 2025
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 58
- Paperback Price: $26.50
- Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1514-8
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA3202-1
- Document Number: RR-A3202-1
Citation
RAND Style Manual
Matthews, Miriam, John A. Ausink, Raymond E. Conley, Kelly Atkinson, Sarah Nicole Kosic, Joshua Fields, and Nelson Lim, Identification of Potential U.S. Air Force Skill Gaps, RAND Corporation, RR-A3202-1, 2025. As of April 16, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3202-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Matthews, Miriam, John A. Ausink, Raymond E. Conley, Kelly Atkinson, Sarah Nicole Kosic, Joshua Fields, and Nelson Lim, Identification of Potential U.S. Air Force Skill Gaps. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3202-1.html. Also available in print form.
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This research was commissioned by the Office of the U.S. Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services and conducted within the Workforce, Development, and Health Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
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