U.S.-China trade tensions have waxed and waned for decades but have remained persistently high since 2017. In this report, the authors assess the effectiveness of recent, more-restrictive U.S. economic policies regarding China. They also provide recommendations on how to improve the United States’ ability to defend its economic interests and enhance the likelihood of the Chinese government adopting fairer trade practices.

The Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Policies Regarding China Pursued from 2017 to 2024

Keith Crane, Timothy R. Heath, Alexandra Stark, Cindy Zheng

ResearchPublished Oct 22, 2024

Although U.S.-China trade tensions have waxed and waned for decades, they have remained persistently high since 2017. In this report, the authors assess the effectiveness of more-restrictive U.S. economic policies adopted toward China and pursued between 2017 and 2024. These policies include those aimed at addressing the U.S. dependence on imports from China, preventing U.S. technologies from being transferred to China, and supporting investment and production in domestic industries that are deemed critical for U.S. national security and technological leadership.

The authors identify two main goals of these recent policies: promoting fairer trade and defending U.S. economic interests. In their policy review, they find that U.S. economic policies achieved limited progress in promoting fairer trade but a higher degree of success in defending U.S. economic-related interests. Finally, the authors present several policy recommendations to better achieve these two goals related to trade, industry, controls on technology, economic diplomacy, foreign investment, and diversification of supply chains away from China.

Key Findings

Recent U.S. economic policy aimed at promoting fairer trade with China has achieved limited success

  • Policies intended to reduce imports from and the bilateral trade deficit with China have been successful.
  • Policies aimed at increasing U.S. exports to China, diversifying supply chains away from China, and shaping international trade rules and norms have had mixed success.
  • Policies designed to persuade China to treat U.S. companies the same as Chinese companies and to stop its unfair trade practices have failed.

Recent U.S. economic policy aimed at defending U.S. interests and the interests of U.S. allies and partners has been more successful

  • Policies designed to control the transfer of key technologies (such as advanced semiconductors) have been successful.
  • Policies aimed at reducing excessive dependence on Chinese suppliers have had mixed success.

Recommendations

  • The U.S. government should maintain higher tariffs on select Chinese imports, offer to reduce certain U.S. tariffs in exchange for reductions of Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports to China, and enter negotiations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
  • Congress should increase funding for the Bureau of Industry and Security and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. The United States should continue to decline official U.S.-China exchanges involving applied technologies, organize a formal committee to coordinate cross-agency U.S.-China economic policy, ensure that U.S. embassies work closely with the China House on new export controls and other economic policies, and continue to permit academic collaboration with China involving basic research.
  • The State Department should instruct U.S. embassies on advising countries contemplating bilateral state-dominated trade agreements with China.
  • The United States should signal that Chinese foreign direct investments that do not threaten national security are welcome and continue pressing China to treat foreign companies operating in China the same as Chinese companies.
  • The U.S. government should confine future subsidies to national security–related industries for which China is the dominant supplier and discontinue subsidies to companies that are not national security–related in sectors in which Chinese firms have a clear advantage.
  • The Department of Commerce should establish an office responsible for strategic planning for critical materials and national security–related products, and the Departments of State and Commerce should work through the Minerals Supply Partnership to coordinate with partner countries to reroute critical supply chains.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2024
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 116
  • Paperback Price: $29.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1409-5
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA3055-1
  • Document Number: RR-A3055-1

Citation

RAND Style Manual

Crane, Keith, Timothy R. Heath, Alexandra Stark, and Cindy Zheng, The Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Policies Regarding China Pursued from 2017 to 2024, RAND Corporation, RR-A3055-1, 2024. As of April 8, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3055-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Crane, Keith, Timothy R. Heath, Alexandra Stark, and Cindy Zheng, The Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Policies Regarding China Pursued from 2017 to 2024. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3055-1.html. Also available in print form.
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