The authors identify approaches for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to counter and deter Chinese maritime gray zone operations. Specifically, they focus on such U.S. military approaches as presence operations, transparency initiatives that publicize malign Chinese behaviors, efforts to spur U.S. allies to help counter China's gray zone efforts, and the use of non-lethal weapons to deter China's aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea.

Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations

Todd C. Helmus, Krista Romita Grocholski, Tyler Liggett, Ashley L. Rhoades, Scott Savitz, Keytin Palmer

ResearchPublished Nov 20, 2024

China is engaged in a campaign to take control of large portions of the South China Sea, including significant portions of the exclusive economic zones of other countries, by conducting various gray zone operations that have allowed China to exert control over the region while avoiding a conventional military response from the United States and its allies and partners. China's use of various gray zone tactics to assert its territorial claims and achieve its political agenda includes maritime aggression, cyber operations, economic coercion, and online propaganda. As a matter of policy, China views these actions as a continuation of politics rather than warfare, and China's efforts are purposefully designed to be below the threshold of war.

The authors identify approaches for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) and other elements of the U.S. military to counter and deter Chinese maritime gray zone operations. The authors focus on approaches that encompass presence operations, transparency initiatives that publicize malign Chinese behaviors, efforts to spur U.S. partners and allies to help counter China's gray zone effort, and the use of non-lethal weapons to directly confront and deter China's aggressive behaviors. To conduct this study, the authors conducted an in-depth literature review of China's maritime gray zone operations, hosted an online forum of gray zone and China experts to discuss potential counter strategies, and conducted interviews with more than 45 experts from the USINDOPACOM and its subordinate service components and others in the defense community.

Key Findings

China views its actions as a continuation of politics rather than warfare, and it has purposefully designed its actions to be below the threshold of war

  • China's goals in employing gray zone operations include securing economic resources in disputed territories, limiting rivals' ability to exploit resources, asserting control over disputed territories, shielding the Chinese mainland from attacks, and preparing the battlespace for a potential future conflict.

One of the four primary pathways for countering China's aggressive maritime gray zone strategy is presence operations

  • This pathway to enhancing presence includes Freedom of Navigation operations, maritime counterinsurgency operations, and joint and multilateral exercises.

The second pathway is the use of transparency initiatives

  • Experts lament the limited degree to which the United States has promoted its transparency agenda due to relatively sparse use of press releases and journalistic embeds, some "throttling back" of communication initiatives by the National Security Council, and a limited budget for the command's public affairs office.

The third pathway focuses on initiatives to build capacity of regional partners for countering China's efforts

  • The U.S. government is working substantively to build the capacity of militaries in Southeast Asia and to improve their security posture.

Possible use of non-lethal weapons in a gray zone context is the fourth primary pathway

  • Recent studies and wargaming efforts show that these weapons may be effective tools that allow the United States and its allies and partners to take action in scenarios where presence is not enough but lethal action is unwarranted.

Recommendations

  • The U.S. government should develop a White House–issued counter–gray zone strategy that could be coordinated by the National Security Council or another office in the U.S. government that has the appropriate staffing and resources and senior leadership to help direct and oversee counter gray zone efforts.
  • Future studies should specifically focus on investigating how the United States has so far marshalled the nonmilitary aspects of diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and legal instruments of national power; the barriers that such efforts confront; and the recommended steps necessary to both directly shape China's maritime behavior and help motivate and empower nations bordering the South China Sea to effectively and assertively push back against China.
  • The United States should develop a strategy to understand the specific and nation-level factors that undermine political will to respond, the unique issues that render countries vulnerable to Chinese blowback, and specific factors that limit capacity for deterring and defeating China in the gray zone.
  • Although the United States seems to focus on the contingency of a kinetic war against China, it risks losing a gray zone conflict in which China is able to effectively gain sovereignty over the South China Sea without ever having to fire a shot. The United States will subsequently need to prepare for and counter both the kinetic and nonkinetic threats posed by China.
  • The U.S. intelligence community should identify opportunities to release and publicize information on malign Chinese actions that can support U.S. transparency operations.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2024
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 156
  • Paperback Price: $29.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1450-8
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2954-1
  • Document Number: RR-A2954-1

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Helmus, Todd C., Krista Romita Grocholski, Tyler Liggett, Ashley L. Rhoades, Scott Savitz, and Keytin Palmer, Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations, RAND Corporation, RR-A2954-1, 2024. As of April 30, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2954-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Helmus, Todd C., Krista Romita Grocholski, Tyler Liggett, Ashley L. Rhoades, Scott Savitz, and Keytin Palmer, Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2954-1.html. Also available in print form.
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