Modeling Physician Workforce Supply, Demand, and Need Using System Dynamics

Model Structure and Assumptions

Andrada Tomoaia-Cotisel, Samuel D. Allen, Siôn Cave, Peter Mendel, Warren W. Farr, Daniel E. Gordon, Roderick MacDonald, Christopher D. Nelson, Monique Martineau

ResearchPublished Mar 5, 2025

In partnership with the Association of American Medical Colleges, RAND researchers developed a new system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. physician workforce, which includes clinical need, supply, and demand factors. Model structure, assumptions, and future directions are described. This report will be of interest to policymakers and others interested in learning how this model differs from other models used to generate such projections.

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Tomoaia-Cotisel, Andrada, Samuel D. Allen, Siôn Cave, Peter Mendel, Warren W. Farr, Daniel E. Gordon, Roderick MacDonald, Christopher D. Nelson, and Monique Martineau, Modeling Physician Workforce Supply, Demand, and Need Using System Dynamics: Model Structure and Assumptions, RAND Corporation, RR-A2616-1, 2025. As of April 30, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2616-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Tomoaia-Cotisel, Andrada, Samuel D. Allen, Siôn Cave, Peter Mendel, Warren W. Farr, Daniel E. Gordon, Roderick MacDonald, Christopher D. Nelson, and Monique Martineau, Modeling Physician Workforce Supply, Demand, and Need Using System Dynamics: Model Structure and Assumptions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2616-1.html.
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This research was funded by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and carried out within the Access and Delivery Program of RAND Health Care and within RAND Education and Labor.

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