This report, now in its fourth edition, synthesizes available scientific evidence for the effects of various firearm policies on firearm injuries and deaths, violent crime, suicides, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. The authors highlight policies whose effects are more rigorously and reliably demonstrated by existing research, as well as areas where better information could contribute to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

The Science of Gun Policy

A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Fourth Edition

Rosanna Smart, Andrew R. Morral, James P. Murphy, Rupa Jose, Amanda Charbonneau, Sierra Smucker

ResearchPublished Jul 16, 2024

Cover: The Science of Gun Policy
Download PDF

Does not incude Appendix B.

Additional Downloads

Includes Appendix B: Source Data Used to Produce the Forest Plot Figures

Order a print copy

In this report, part of RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers seek objective information about what scientific literature reveals about the likely effects of various gun laws. In the fourth edition of this report, the authors incorporate more-recent research in their synthesis of the available scientific data regarding the effects of 18 state firearm policies on firearm injuries and deaths, violent crime, suicides, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas in which more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

Learn more about the project and explore the data.

Key Findings

Scientific evidence on gun policies' effects supports several conclusions, but much remains inconclusive

  • Of more than 200 combinations of policies and outcomes, many have received little methodologically rigorous investigation. Notably, research into five of the examined outcomes is either unavailable or almost entirely inconclusive, and three of these five outcomes represent issues of particular concern to gun owners or gun industry stakeholders.
  • Available evidence supports the conclusion that child-access prevention (CAP) laws, or safe-storage laws, reduce self-inflicted fatal or nonfatal firearm injuries — including unintentional and intentional self-injuries — among youth. Evidence also supports the conclusion that such laws reduce firearm homicides among youth.
  • There is supportive evidence that stand-your-ground laws are associated with increases in firearm homicides and moderate evidence that such laws increase the total number of homicides.
  • There is supportive evidence that "shall-issue" concealed-carry laws increase total homicides, firearm homicides, and other violent crime.
  • There is supportive evidence that increasing the minimum age required to purchase a firearm above the threshold set by federal law can reduce firearm suicides among young people.
  • There is moderate evidence that state laws prohibiting gun ownership by individuals subject to domestic violence restraining orders decrease total and firearm-related intimate partner homicides.
  • There is moderate evidence that background check requirements reduce homicides.
  • No studies meeting the authors' inclusion criteria have examined the effects of laws requiring the reporting of lost or stolen firearms or of laws allowing armed staff in kindergarten through grade 12 schools.

Recommendations

  • States without CAP laws should consider adopting them as a strategy to reduce firearm injuries and deaths among youth.
  • States implementing CAP or other safe-storage laws should support data collection and investigation of the mechanisms by which CAP laws affect injury outcomes, for example, by investigating effects on gun ownership, storage, and thefts.
  • States with stand-your-ground laws should consider repealing or amending them as a strategy for reducing firearm homicides.
  • States with shall-issue or permitless-carry laws should consider whether other regulations might ensure that the effects of concealed-carry laws are aligned with public safety.
  • States should consider raising the minimum age to purchase firearms and ammunition above the level of federal requirements as a strategy to reduce firearm suicides among youths.
  • States without laws prohibiting gun ownership while individuals are subject to domestic violence restraining orders should consider passing such laws as a strategy to reduce total and firearm-related intimate partner homicides.
  • To improve the development of firearm violence prevention strategies, the federal government should commit to an ongoing program of research funding.
  • To improve understanding of outcomes of critical concern to many in gun policy debates, research sponsors should support studies examining the effects of gun policies on a wider set of outcomes, including crime, defensive gun use, hunting and sport shooting, police shootings, and the gun industry.
  • To foster more-robust research on illegal guns, Congress should consider eliminating or loosening the restrictions it has imposed on the use of gun trace data for research purposes.
  • Researchers, reviewers, academics, and science reporters should ensure that new analyses of the effects of gun policies improve on earlier studies by persuasively addressing the methodological limitations of these studies.

Order a Print Copy

Format
Paperback
Page count
512 pages
List Price
$68.00
Buy link
Add to Cart

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2024
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 512
  • Paperback Price: $68.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1363-3
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA243-9
  • Document Number: RR-A243-9

Citation

RAND Style Manual

Smart, Rosanna, Andrew R. Morral, James P. Murphy, Rupa Jose, Amanda Charbonneau, and Sierra Smucker, The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Fourth Edition, RAND Corporation, RR-A243-9, 2024. As of April 30, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA243-9.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Smart, Rosanna, Andrew R. Morral, James P. Murphy, Rupa Jose, Amanda Charbonneau, and Sierra Smucker, The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Fourth Edition. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA243-9.html. Also available in print form.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This research was supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures and conducted by the Justice Policy Program within RAND Social and Economic Well-Being.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.