Researchers provide an assessment of the risk to the U.S. homeland from intelligent swarm technology using unmanned aerial systems or drones. They consider technology availability, threat, vulnerability, and consequences in the next three years, three to five years, and five to ten years.

Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis

Unmanned Aerial Systems Intelligent Swarm Technology

Daniel M. Gerstein, Erin N. Leidy

ResearchPublished Feb 15, 2024

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) or drone technologies, both individual systems and swarms of UASs, have proliferated over the past 25 years for a wide variety of applications. As a result, this technology and the ability to employ these UAS capabilities represent both a current and a growing threat as the technology continues to mature.

In this report, researchers assess intelligent swarm technology, considering technology availability, as well as risks and scenarios (threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences) in the next three years, three to five years, and five to ten years. In addition, the researchers consider whether preparedness or mitigation and response activities would be undertaken that could reduce the risk as the technology evolves. The researchers conclude that, whether surrogate drone swarms or intelligent drone swarm technology is employed, these systems present a significant risk to the homeland, and vulnerabilities and consequences will likely be challenging to mitigate.

Key Findings

  • UASs, or drone technologies, for both individual systems and for surrogate swarms represent a current threat and, in the case of intelligent swarms, a growing threat given continued advances in range, payload, and power as UAS technology continues to mature.
  • The maturing of intelligent swarms will come at the convergence of multiple technologies, including artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of Things, and 5G, which will combine to support the development and employment of these capabilities.
  • The risks of the illicit use of intelligent swarms will continue to grow over time; however, attacks will likely remain localized, with the potential for impacts to be felt regionally in some cases, such as cyber or electromagnetic attacks against the electrical grid. This would mean the consequences are likely to remain moderate because they are not likely to have a national impact.
  • Vulnerabilities and consequences will likely be challenging to mitigate for homeland security defenders (e.g., law enforcement officers, first responders, planners, and workers in critical infrastructure sectors), because fielding detection systems and countermeasures across the range of potential targets could be extremely costly.

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Citation

RAND Style Manual

Gerstein, Daniel M. and Erin N. Leidy, Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis: Unmanned Aerial Systems Intelligent Swarm Technology, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center operated by the RAND Corporation, RR-A2380-1, 2024. As of April 30, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2380-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Gerstein, Daniel M. and Erin N. Leidy, Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis: Unmanned Aerial Systems Intelligent Swarm Technology. Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center operated by the RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2380-1.html.
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This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and conducted in the Management, Technology, and Capabilities Program of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division.

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