RAND researchers hosted a subject matter expert workshop, supplemented by an in-depth literature review, to determine proposed courses of action to reduce security threats from and meet international standards for prisons holding presumed former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters. The prisons are insecure, presenting a danger to the region and world given their potential for fueling an ISIS resurgence with prisoners in legal limbo.

The Prisoner Dilemma

Policy Options to Address Circumstances of ISIS Prisoners in Northeastern Syria

Karen M. Sudkamp, Howard J. Shatz, Shelly Culbertson, Douglas C. Ligor

ResearchPublished Aug 9, 2023

RAND researchers hosted a subject matter expert workshop, supplemented by an in-depth literature review, to determine proposed courses of action to reduce security threats from and meet international standards for prisons holding presumed former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters. The prisons are insecure and require physical reinforcements, otherwise they will continue to present a danger to the region and world given their potential for fueling an ISIS resurgence. Prisoners, including youth, remain in legal limbo with no internationally agreed-on justice procedures or specific legal charges, potentially leading to indefinite detention in poor living conditions. RAND's research and discussions revealed that the situation of the ISIS prisoners carries four problems and risks that can be mitigated through both short-term courses of action and medium-term policy directions.

Key Findings

The situation of the ISIS prisoners carries four problems.

  • The risk of a prison breakout is the most critical security threat from the current situation.
  • Guarding the prisons is a challenge because of overcrowding, low resources for guards, and insufficient physical building protections.
  • Conditions within the prisons and the treatment of prisoners present an additional risk as the poor conditions do not meet international norms for treatment of prisoners, exacerbate humanitarian and public health concerns, and have led to riots. In addition, these conditions could provide fodder for ISIS messaging about mistreatment by Syrian Democratic Forces and the Defeat-ISIS (D-ISIS) Coalition, the multinational alliance that fought ISIS and remains together to prevent ISIS's return.
  • The prisoners include youth in conditions that do not accord with humanitarian norms and standards of care for children and could lead to greater risk of their radicalization.

There are several barriers to addressing these problems.

  • The prisons are guarded with only limited resources, and the necessary resources have not been allocated by the international community.
  • Home countries hesitate to repatriate prisoners, presumed ISIS fighters.
  • There is ongoing instability in northeastern Syria and no settlement to the country's civil war.
  • There is no agreed-on justice process for the prisoners or juvenile justice process for the youth.

Recommendations

The following short-term approaches emerged from the discussion:

  • Recognize that many of the prisoners are likely to be incarcerated in northeastern Syria over the long term.
  • Continue efforts to encourage repatriation of foreign prisoners.
  • Develop justice processes.
  • Move youth from prisons to facilities designed to support their unique needs with humane conditions, healthcare, and education.

The following medium-term approaches emerged from discussion:

  • Construct purpose-built prisons that meet international standards while continuing to professionalize security forces.
  • Implement the repatriation and justice processes that reflect international standards as prescribed within the shorter-term approaches.
  • Determine exit pathways for youth from the youth-oriented facility to which they may have been moved.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2023
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 62
  • Paperback Price: $16.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-1-9774-1139-6
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2287-1
  • Document Number: RR-A2287-1

Citation

RAND Style Manual

Sudkamp, Karen M., Howard J. Shatz, Shelly Culbertson, and Douglas C. Ligor, The Prisoner Dilemma: Policy Options to Address Circumstances of ISIS Prisoners in Northeastern Syria, RAND Corporation, RR-A2287-1, 2023. As of April 8, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2287-1.html

Chicago Manual of Style

Sudkamp, Karen M., Howard J. Shatz, Shelly Culbertson, and Douglas C. Ligor, The Prisoner Dilemma: Policy Options to Address Circumstances of ISIS Prisoners in Northeastern Syria. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2287-1.html. Also available in print form.
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Funding for this research was made possible by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. The research was conducted by the International Security and Defense Policy Program within the RAND National Security Research Division.

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