Recruiter Management in the Department of the Air Force
ResearchPublished Jul 22, 2024
This report presents the results of three analyses: (1) determining which characteristics of recruiters are most strongly linked to recruiting production, (2) identifying which Department of the Air Force recruiting offices would gain the most from adding recruiters, and (3) examining how the factors affecting recruiter productivity are different in two types of markets. The report also provides recommendations for improving recruiting data.
Fiscal year 2023 was among the hardest years in recent memory for military recruiting. The Air Force Recruiting Service (AFRS) asked RAND researchers to determine how to better manage the selection and assignment of enlisted accessions recruiters in the Department of the Air Force (DAF). To conduct this analysis, the authors assembled data on U.S. Air Force enlisted accessions recruiters, recruiting offices, enlistment contracts, recruiting goals, and the economic and demographic conditions in territories in which recruiting offices operate. They analyzed this information using regression analysis and other statistical techniques.
This report documents the authors' efforts to link data on recruiters, recruiter productivity, recruiting goals, and the economic conditions in different recruiting markets. The report presents the results of three analyses: (1) determining which individual characteristics of recruiters are most strongly linked to recruiter productivity, (2) identifying where the Department of the Air Force could add recruiter billets, and (3) examining how the factors affecting recruiter productivity are different in two types of markets. The report also provides recommendations for improving AFRS administrative data in ways that would support recruiter management and analyses within AFRS.
Key Findings
- Predicted recruiter productivity peaks two years into a recruiter's term and declines afterward.
- There are no statistically significant differences in productivity by pay grade when a recruiter's term started, but recruiters who are promoted during their recruiting term tend to be more productive.
- There are no statistically significant differences in productivity by marital or parental status, primary Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC), assignment to the recruiter's home state or a region similar to their hometown, or demographic match to the local population.
- Analysis of recruiters with personality assessment scores indicate that recruiters who are both results- and people-oriented are more productive than recruiters who have other personality types.
- Higher levels of the qualified military available (QMA) population, recruiting goals, local unemployment rate, and the percentage of the population who are Black, Hispanic, or veteran are associated with higher levels of productivity.
- The already productive offices stand to gain the most from adding additional recruiters, which suggests that more-productive offices have not yet exhausted their recruiting potential.
- The relationships between (1) recruiter tenure and productivity and between (2) promotion and productivity are stronger in prospecting markets than in walk-in markets.
- There is also some evidence that suggests there are differences in the personality types that are most successful in the different types of markets. These results point to potential differences in the skills needed for recruiting success in each type of market.
Recommendations
- The AFRS should provide qualitative guidance to commanders who make Developmental Special Duty nominations for recruiting positions so that they consider nominating airmen and guardians who are results- and people-oriented. This report's analysis suggests that recruiters who are both results- and people-oriented are the most productive. However, personality assessments should not be used directly as a tool for selecting recruiters.
- If AFRS is authorized to expand its recruiting force, new billets should be assigned to offices where recruiters are already highly productive. Assigning additional recruiters to recruiting offices will generally increase the production of recruits, but AFRS should consider where its added production is greatest, which will vary based on office characteristics (e.g., QMA, recruiting goal) and each office's current staffing level. This report's analysis suggests that those offices that are already highly productive and better staffed than their peers are the best candidates for receiving additional recruiter billets.
- AFRS should improve the tracking of recruiters' demographic and military information to allow analytics on recruiter productivity for different groups of recruiters. This recommendation includes tracking recruiters by a stable, unique identifier (e.g., Social Security number, Department of Defense identification number) that follows them during their time as a recruiter and links to other DAF data systems and collecting additional information on recruiters, such as race, gender, pay grade, and primary AFSC. This information could be incorporated into the Air Force Recruiting Information Support System — Total Force or other AFRS data systems to support recruiter management and analysis.
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Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Year: 2024
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 80
- Paperback Price: $38.00
- Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1361-7
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2181-1
- Document Number: RR-A2181-1
Citation
RAND Style Manual
Calkins, Avery, Samuel Absher, Paul Emslie, Catria Gadwah-Meaden, Ashley Gromis, Thomas Light, Anna C. Morgan, Alice Nguyen, Nicolas M. Robles, Stephanie Williamson, Carlos Calvo Hernandez, Barbara Bicksler, and Kimberly J. Lichte, Recruiter Management in the Department of the Air Force, RAND Corporation, RR-A2181-1, 2024. As of April 8, 2025: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2181-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Calkins, Avery, Samuel Absher, Paul Emslie, Catria Gadwah-Meaden, Ashley Gromis, Thomas Light, Anna C. Morgan, Alice Nguyen, Nicolas M. Robles, Stephanie Williamson, Carlos Calvo Hernandez, Barbara Bicksler, and Kimberly J. Lichte, Recruiter Management in the Department of the Air Force. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2181-1.html. Also available in print form.
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The research reported here was commissioned by the Air Force Recruiting Service (AFRS) and conducted within the Workforce, Development, and Health Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
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