Research & Commentary

Carolyn Bull Appointed Director of RAND Australia

Carolyn Bull, a leading Australian national security expert, has been named the new director of RAND Australia, effective February 25, 2025.

Australia's Defense Strategy

This article examines Australia's 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS) within the context of evolving regional dynamics and global strategic competition.

Andrew Dowse

Forward 2045: A Foresight Study Examining the Implications of Global Trends over the Next 20 Years

Projecting 20 years into the future, the authors aim to stretch thinking beyond the immediate challenges Australia faces at home and in the Indo-Pacific region. Implications from numerous megatrends are presented to inform future defence planning.

Joanne Nicholson, Peter Dortmans

Understanding How to Scale and Accelerate the Adoption of Robotic and Autonomous Systems Into Deployable Capability: Phase 1—identifying Barriers

No documented wide-scale deployments of fully robotic and functionally autonomous weapon systems exist despite every major military force having a declared interest in them. This paper explores the potential barriers to their widespread adoption.

Austin Wyatt, Joanne Nicholson, Marigold Black, Andrew Dowse

Opportunities and Challenges of AUKUS

President Biden's approval of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act will facilitate key aspects of the AUKUS technology cooperation partnership. The partnership will benefit each participant, but is not without its challenges.

Andrew Dowse

Towards AUKUS Collaboration on Responsible Military Artificial Intelligence: Co-Design and Co-Development of AI Among the United States, the UK and Australia

The authors investigate the challenges and barriers that could inhibit or prevent the co-development of artificial intelligence (AI) between the United States and its closest allies and partners.

Austin Wyatt, James Ryseff, Elisa Yoshiara, Benjamin Boudreaux, Marigold Black, James Black

Australia's Sovereign Capability in Military Weapons

The authors of this Perspective discuss the objectives of Australia's Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise and examine options to achieve these objectives.

Andrew Dowse, Marigold Black, John P. Godges, Caleb Lucas, Christopher A. Mouton

Countering Violent Extremism Online: Understanding Adversity and Adaptation in an Increasingly Complex Digital Environment

The increasingly complex online ecosystem offers advantages to violent extremists. The authors identify gaps in current understanding of this online landscape. This detailed analysis suggests new policy settings are required.

Joanne Nicholson, Sean Keeling, Marigold Black

Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System

Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.

Marigold Black, Benjamin J. Sacks, Peter Dortmans, Jade Yeung, Scott Savitz, Scott R. Stephenson, Abbie Tingstad, Stephanie Pezard, Nicolas Jouan, James Black

Strategic Advantage, Sovereignty and Australia's Geopolitical Identity

In Australia, which has experienced few national existential crises, there appears to be little understanding of or consideration given to all the nuanced contours of winning. Australia may need to critically assess its strategic traditions to develop a broader conceptualization of how to secure the safety and well-being of the nation and position itself advantageously.

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans

Information Warfare: Methods to Counter Disinformation

We consider the nature of disinformation and its use in the hybrid warfare domain, before examining the problem through frames of planning approach, truth theory, systems thinking, and military strategy.

Andrew Dowse, Sascha Dov Bachmann

Supporting the Royal Australian Navy's Campaign Plan for Robotics and Autonomous Systems: Enhancing Innovation

The authors describe approaches the Royal Australian Navy might consider for enabling innovation with, and rapid acquisition of, robotics, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence (RAS-AI) in the near and medium terms.

Marigold Black, Carl Rhodes, James Black, Rebecca Lucas, Linda Slapakova