NASA's lunar ambitions have hit turbulence. Between its Artemis moon exploration programme and China accelerating its own efforts, the pressure is building to put boots on the Moon (again). But after SpaceX's latest Starship test ended in a fiery explosion over the Caribbean on March 7, mirroring a similar failure in January, NASA's primary lunar lander choice faces growing challenges. These high-profile mishaps raise serious concerns about the readiness of Starship, which is set to transport astronauts to the Moon in 2027.
NASA allocated $45.5 million to 11 American companies, including SpaceX and Blue Origin, to develop lunar landers for Artemis. SpaceX was chosen to supply the Artemis 3 crew lander using its Starship vehicle. However, the programme's timeline is now in question. Could Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, once a dark horse, emerge as a viable alternative? A successful 2025 cargo test of its Blue Moon lander could shift Artemis's trajectory. Yet, switching providers would be a logistical nightmare, adding costs and delays at a time when China is aiming for its own lunar landing by 2030.
The Artemis Roadmap
The Artemis programme is designed to return astronauts to the Moon and lay the groundwork for future missions to Mars. Artemis 1, an uncrewed test of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion capsule, was successfully completed in 2022. The next four missions aim to break new ground:
- Artemis 2 (April 2026): A crewed flight beyond the Moon using SLS and Orion.
- Artemis 3 (Mid-2027): The first crewed Moon landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, using SpaceX's Starship HLS lander.
- Artemis 4 (September 2028): Delivery of the Gateway lunar space station's core module and another crewed Moon landing, again relying on Starship.
- Artemis 5 (March 2030): Expansion of the Gateway station and a third crewed landing using Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander.
The Artemis programme is designed to return astronauts to the Moon and lay the groundwork for future missions to Mars.
NASA's reliance on private companies is a strategic move, leveraging cost-effective solutions while fostering competition in the space industry. SpaceX currently dominates the U.S. launch market, conducting five out of every six launches. Its Crew Dragon has revolutionised human spaceflight under NASA's Commercial Crew Program. If Starship works as planned, its sheer size and reusability could significantly reduce launch costs, expanding the U.S. share of the global space market.
SpaceX vs. Blue Origin
SpaceX's Starship offers unprecedented cargo capacity and cost efficiency, but its recent test failures highlight risks. The company's rapid development approach—“move fast and break things”—has propelled innovation but raises concerns about reliability. NASA cannot afford critical failures during crewed lunar missions.
In contrast, Blue Origin's progress has been slower but steady. The Blue Moon lander is lighter and requires less refuelling than Starship, potentially offering a more stable alternative. However, its reliance on the New Glenn rocket—a system with only one test flight—poses its own risks. Blue Origin secured the Artemis 5 contract partly due to its legal challenge against NASA's initial decision to select only SpaceX. If Starship falters, Blue Moon could become a backup option.
NASA must weigh whether to push ahead with Starship for Artemis 3 or delay its use until Artemis 4, allowing more time for testing. This could give Blue Origin an opportunity to step in, if it can prove its lander is flight-ready.
China's Lunar Ambitions
NASA is not alone in returning to the Moon. China is methodically advancing its lunar programme, aiming for a historic crewed landing by 2030. In 2019, China's Chang'e 4 became the first mission to land on the far side of the Moon, and in 2020, Chang'e 5 successfully returned lunar samples.
China's next steps include a lunar South Pole landing in 2026 and the construction of an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) by 2028. The Chinese space programme operates under strict state control but is gradually incorporating international partnerships, including with Russia. Unlike NASA's model of commercial collaboration, China's centralised approach ensures consistency but limits private-sector innovation.
For the United States, China's progress is a wake-up call. The fear of losing technological prestige and space leadership could push NASA and Congress to maintain (over)ambitious timelines for Artemis, ensuring the United States maintains its dominance in lunar exploration.
The Future of Lunar Exploration
SpaceX's recent Starship setbacks underline the challenges of deep-space exploration. Blue Origin's steady but untested progress offers a potential alternative. While competition in the private space sector fosters innovation, it also highlights the risks of relying on a single provider.
NASA's decisions today will shape the next era of space exploration, dictating if the United States maintains its lead or faces stiff competition from China.
Regulatory oversight is crucial, especially as commercial spaceflight expands. Space debris, environmental risks, and crew safety cannot be sacrificed in the pursuit of lunar dominance. NASA's decisions today will shape the next era of space exploration, dictating if the United States maintains its lead or faces stiff competition from China.
Ultimately, Artemis is more than just a return to the Moon: it is a test of America's ability to sustain long-term space exploration in the face of growing global competition. Whether through SpaceX, Blue Origin, or another player, NASA must ensure that its lunar ambitions are not just bold, but also achievable and safe.
