Factoring Africa into U.S. Security Policy

Transcript

Marie Jones, Senior International/Defense Researcher, RAND Corporation

I'm Marie Jones, an international policy researcher at RAND. Most Americans don't think of Africa as a core national security interest of the United States. The narratives surrounding Africa and the African diaspora appear to understate both their geopolitical significance and connection to the broader global economy.

Here at RAND, we have started an initiative to examine why Africa matters and how we can fill gaps in policy research. Some of the reasons that we find compelling for studying Africa include, first, economics. Africa will account for eleven of the world's twenty fastest-growing economies in 2024. The continent is set to remain the second fastest-growing region after Asia. Second, demographics. Five of the six countries projected to account for more than half of the world's population growth through the end of this century are in Africa. They are Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Angola. And third, soft power. The global reach and human capital of the African diaspora are ever stronger, and the U.S. government is including the diaspora into policy efforts to engage Africa at the national and subnational level.

Let's look deeper into one aspect of Africa's strategic relevance, where researchers can contribute to increasing knowledge and awareness, that is, the exploitation of critical minerals in Africa. Here's a clip from RAND engineer Fabian Villalobos discussing his research into critical mineral supply chains, and in particular Russia and China's strategic activity in African nations.

Fabian Villalobos, Engineer, RAND Corporation

Hi, I'm Fabian Villalobos, a RAND researcher who focuses on technology supply chains and strategic competition. The United States and its allies are at a pivotal juncture in their competition with strategic competitors like Russia and China in the domain of critical mineral supply chains. To improve their economic competitiveness and to prepare for a potential contingency, the United States and its allies are looking to secure access to these minerals at fair market prices.

African nations have access to many minerals that are important manufacturing inputs to several sectors of the economy, like semiconductors and microchips, consumer electronics, electric vehicles, renewables, construction, and more. Chinese enterprises have spent many years conducting foreign direct investment in exchange for access to mineral deposits in African nations. As a result, Chinese companies own stakes in many African mines, including the copper and cobalt-rich region of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. In turn, these mines supply processing facilities in mainland China that provide manufacturing inputs to several technologies. Meanwhile, Russia linked entities like the former Wagner Group have made inroads with local stakeholders with access to gold deposits which help fund Russian activity in the region and elsewhere.

In response to concerns over access to minerals, the United States and its allies are approaching the problem with a multipronged strategy that includes economic development to present an alternative to China's foreign investment model. For example, the Lobito Atlantic Railway is a project to develop transportation infrastructure in the DRC and Zambia to help export copper and cobalt out of the region.

As Western countries navigate geopolitical and economic security challenges in supply chains, the need for a pragmatic, partnership-driven strategy that aligns with the interests of developing nations in the region becomes increasingly apparent. Achieving broader U.S. economic and security goals must therefore include working closely with African nations.

Marie Jones

Now let's turn to an assistant policy researcher at RAND, Elisa Yoshiara, who studies how the natural resource exploitation that Fabian described is a catalyst for violent conflict in Africa.

Elisa Yoshiara, Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation

In many ways, the conflict in the DRC is the story about an unequal global economy and its devastating effects. At one end of the supply chain, you have these giant multinational companies like Apple and Tesla making tens, sometimes even hundreds of billions of dollars in profit each year. At the other end of the spectrum, you have resource-rich countries like the DRC, who supply the very essential minerals needed to make things like iPhones and electric vehicles, and at the same time are struggling to make ends meet.

More than 75% of the DRC's population lives on less than $2.15 per day. This level of poverty is extremely destabilizing. When individuals lack opportunities to make a living and to support their families through legitimate means, they are more likely to join armed groups or engage in other types of illegal activities. Even within the DRC's mining sector, we see significant disparities. There is a big gap, for example, between large, often internationally owned mining companies and the hundreds of thousands of artisanal miners who make their living by digging for minerals using rudimentary tools like shovels and picks.

As policy researchers, we need a better understanding of the types of policies, both locally in mining countries like the DRC, but also more globally among consumer countries like the United States, that will support more equitable supply chains. How can we integrate artisanal mining into global supply chains in a way that’s fair and transparent? How can we ensure that the environmental and social costs of mining aren’t hidden away, but are openly addressed? These are the types of questions, and not just questions about strategic competition with China, that we should be focusing on when it comes to designing secure critical mineral supply chains.

Marie Jones

As you can see, Africa matters for the United States and for the international community. We need more research and analysis on Africa and the African diaspora to help policymakers keep pace with change and decide when and how to seize strategic opportunities for U.S. engagement in the region.