As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, he confronts a situation on the Korean Peninsula that is remarkably different from his first term, and a North Korean leader who is more assertive than ever thanks to strengthened ties with Russia.
But the unorthodox former president is also uniquely positioned to forge a sustainable path through this dangerous state of affairs due to his personal rapport with Kim Jong-un—if he can acknowledge the infeasibility of denuclearization while still constraining Kim's most destabilizing tendencies.
When Trump first extended his hand to Kim in Singapore in 2018, the young North Korean dictator likely allowed himself some optimism. After a year of bellicose rhetoric and name-calling, the unprecedented summit represented a rare opportunity to secure international legitimacy and economic relief that had long eluded his secretive regime.
Trump is uniquely positioned to forge a sustainable path through this dangerous state of affairs due to his personal rapport with Kim Jong-un.
The failure of subsequent talks in Hanoi in 2019 dashed these fragile hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with the United States and left Kim embittered and disillusioned, his dreams of sanctions relief collapsing. In the years since, Kim has embarked on an increasingly militant course, adopting a more aggressive nuclear posture and deploying some 10,000 troops to support Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Yet Trump has held out hopes to revive his friendship with the North Korean leader once back in the White House, and a report that his transition team is exploring direct talks with Kim suggests the two are poised to reunite, albeit with new obstacles standing in the way of a deal.
The End of Juche
For decades, the hereditary dictatorship in North Korea has proudly clung to the doctrine of juche—a philosophy of self-reliance and self-defense that has allowed Pyongyang to relentlessly pursue the development of nuclear weapons. Under this rubric, the DPRK has fiercely pursued economic self-sufficiency to protect its national independence and viewed extensive engagement with the outside world as a threat to the regime's survival.
No longer. The sight of North Korean troops deploying to Ukraine to support Russia's brutal invasion marks a dramatic departure from this historical pattern of autarky and self-defense. Kim Jong-un's decision to actively intervene in an overseas conflict, far beyond its borders, should thus give pause to policymakers in Washington and its regional allies. The world is witnessing the emergence of a more aggressive, Moscow-oriented North Korea that sees Russia as a better long-term partner for its economic and military needs.
Paranoia surrounding the pandemic forced North Korea into near-total isolation for more than three years and exacerbated the regime's financial woes. Kim also increasingly distrusts Xi Jinping and reportedly referred to China as an “enemy” in internal remarks to North Korean officials.
Faced with the specter of another mass famine and amid growing mistrust of the Chinese, Kim appears to have made a calculated gambit to deploy troops not only to curry political favor with Vladimir Putin and gain much-needed hard currency, but also to demonstrate a willingness to actively shape geopolitical events far beyond the Korean Peninsula.
Beyond the immediate benefits of battlefield experience for his troops, the DPRK's military support for Russia helps normalize Kim as an active player in international conflicts. Each North Korean artillery shell fired in Ukraine for Putin's neo-imperialist agenda erodes the long-standing tradition of self-reliance that has historically constrained Pyongyang's external military activities.
In return, Russian military specialists and technicians could help North Korea diversify its growing nuclear weapons program. Just this week, South Korea's national security adviser told the media that Russia has supplied air defense missile systems to the DPRK.
This evolution in Kim's strategic thinking has been gradual but unmistakable. Denied the economic concessions he craved from Trump, the North Korean leader grew increasingly disillusioned with the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough with the Biden administration. Meanwhile, the influx of South Korean dramas and movies threatened the security of the regime, which zealously guards against “ideological and cultural poisoning” from its capitalist neighbors.
For Kim, the war in Ukraine presents not chaos but opportunity, and this strategic shift toward Russia now poses a major challenge to the incoming Trump administration. The question is whether Trump can devise an effective and creative response before Kim's rogue actions disrupt the fragile peace on the peninsula.
Responding to a Nontraditional State
The second Trump administration will need to recognize that Kim's Ukraine gambit likely represents the first step in a much stronger and dangerous Russia–North Korea partnership. With a more robust nuclear arsenal, a confident Kim seeks to dismantle the U.S.–South Korea military alliance and interrupt trilateral cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo.
This requires a multifaceted response from Trump: softening his insistence on military burden-sharing with South Korea and Japan, strengthening lines of communication with Xi Jinping on containing Kim's worst behaviors, and not being merely reactive to North Korea's evolving military capabilities.
For Trump, foreign policy is a transactional business. He sees alliances and foreign assistance as a zero-sum competition that the United States is perpetually losing. Trump also values personal relationships with foreign leaders, and his past willingness to engage directly with Kim could create an opening for the United States again.
As Kim breaks from his regime's traditional patterns of seclusion, Trump must similarly evolve his approach and recommit to a strong U.S. security presence in Northeast Asia. The DPRK leader is betting on the long-term viability of Putin's regime. The question now is whether Trump can prove him wrong before his gamble escalates into something far more dangerous than troop deployments to Russia.
Rather than clinging to the utopian goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization, a second Trump administration may be uniquely positioned to pursue a more pragmatic arms control framework.
It will be critical Trump demonstrates that Kim's reading of the international situation is fundamentally flawed. This means not only maintaining U.S.-South Korea joint military readiness but also personally telling Kim the dangers of hitching a ride on Putin's revanchism.
Rather than clinging to the utopian goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization, a second Trump administration may be uniquely positioned to pursue a more pragmatic arms control framework. This could quietly acknowledge the reality that the DPRK is a nuclear-armed state while still working to constrain the regime's most destabilizing capabilities.
As a foreign policy realist who once referred to Kim as a “very honorable” leader, Trump could leverage his personal relationship with the North Korean leader to broker an agreement that, while falling short of total nuclear disarmament, nevertheless enhances security for the United States and its allies in Seoul and Tokyo.
