New Insights from the RAND National Security Research Division

July 8, 2024

On July 9–11, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders will gather in Washington, D.C., for a summit meeting to mark NATO’s 75th anniversary. Since its founding, the Alliance has transformed and adapted—from its beginning in the tensions of the Cold War to its enlargement and shift to cooperative security and out-of-area operations and a return to the territorial defense of the Euro-Atlantic area in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As NATO’s strategic challenges have evolved, RAND’s sustained analysis, comprising more than 500 reports and memoranda, has informed policymakers and the public about NATO’s evolution, achievements, and existential dilemmas. Four key themes emerge from this body of work:

1. the need for NATO to provide effective deterrence and defense;
2. the evolving transatlantic bargain between the United States and Europe on sharing the burdens of defense;
3. the enlargement of NATO membership over time; and
4. adapting NATO’s strategy and structures to meet emerging security challenges.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine united the Alliance in the face of a shared threat, prompting European allies to strengthen their defenses and assume greater responsibilities. But the war in Ukraine has also exposed serious vulnerabilities in the Alliance that, if left unaddressed, will invite continued challenges from Russia.

Recommendations: The goals of the U.S.-hosted summit should be to reinforce deterrence and defense posture; agree to share the risks and burdens of collective defense and security more equitably; offer Ukraine assurances of long-term security assistance and a clearer path to NATO membership; and continue adaptation to meet new threats and match the pace of technological advancement.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has placed greater importance on ensuring the security and territorial integrity of the NATO treaty area. RAND studies on enhancing deterrence and defense posture provide parallels for NATO’s current efforts, highlighting the need for improving force generation, readiness, firepower, and logistics. They can also be useful to the Alliance as it works to implement NATO’s new Concept for Deterrence and Defense of the Euro-Atlantic Area, a new force model that provides the Supreme Allied Commander Europe with a larger, more rapid force generation capability.

The distribution of burdens and responsibilities within the Alliance has been a contentious issue since NATO’s formation. RAND research has consistently highlighted the need for reciprocal commitments to collective defense on both sides of the Atlantic. Sustaining the ability and willingness among allies to make meaningful contributions to common security challenges requires robust investment in warfighting capabilities, as well as better, output-focused benchmarks to ensure military readiness. But the Alliance must also enhance political consultations and risk-sharing to tackle new threats and shared challenges presented by the return of great-power competition, including the threats posed by China.

RAND work done in the 1990s advanced a set of principles that guided the process of enlargement and emphasized the critical role of the Alliance in post–Cold War European security, stability, and prosperity. Research provided assessments of the military and political challenges of bringing Central and Eastern European countries into NATO, as well as the potential contributions of those countries to the Alliance. RAND’s analysis further identified key principles—later enshrined as the Perry Principles—on which NATO should judge prospective members. Those principles—commitment to democratic governance, free market economics, the rule of law, and a demonstrated ability of prospective members to defend their own territory and contribute to NATO’s missions—have enduring relevance today.

NATO faced fundamental questions well beyond enlargement in the post–Cold War environment. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO embarked on an effort to adapt its mission and scope to meet emerging security challenges. Civil conflicts in Europe, terrorism after the attacks of September 11, and an increase in hybrid threats below the threshold required under Article 5 have required NATO to reimagine its capabilities and requirements. RAND’s body of research offers fruitful approaches for the Alliance to meet the threats in an era of great-power competition, including the threats posed by China to Alliance interests.

While these strategic challenges have evolved throughout the history of the Alliance, confronting each of them depends on the ability to generate a greater sense of political cohesion and unity of purpose among all NATO allies. Sustaining this cohesion will require redoubled U.S. leadership as we look ahead to the future of the Alliance.

This summary is derived from Sustaining the Transatlantic Alliance: 75 Years of RAND Insights on NATO (RR-4189/1-OSD) by Anna Dowd, Stephanie Pezard, Stephen J. Flanagan, and Clara de Lataillade.

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