Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Associate Engineer, RAND, and Professor of Policy Analysis, RAND School of Public Policy

He/Him

Pedro Nascimento de Lima is an associate engineer at RAND and a professor at the RAND School of Public Policy, specializing in computational methods to support better policy decisions. His research draws from a broad range of computational modeling paradigms, including statistical, mechanistic (agent-based, differential equations, microsimulation), and machine learning methods.

Nascimento de Lima's substantive research contributions span multiple policy domains. He was a key developer of the modeling framework underlying RAND's COVID-19 State Policy Tool - RAND's most-viewed research product of 2020. In health care policy, his work on cancer screening projected requirements for cost-effective blood-based screening tests and stress-tested cancer screening strategies that are followed by millions of Americans. His work also explored policies that could address America's major wealth disparities in the United States. He has also consistently contributed open-source computational tools to the research community and has a strong commitment to high-quality reproducible research.

His current research includes developing frameworks for systemic risk assessment, evaluating frontier AI model capabilities, improving causal inference methods, and assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health interventions.

Nascimento de Lima earned his Ph.D. in policy analysis from the RAND School of Public Policy. He also holds a B.S. and an M.S. in production engineering from Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos in Brazil.

Education

Ph.D. in policy analysis, RAND School of Public Policy; M.Phil. in policy analysis, RAND School of Public Policy; M.S. in production engineering, UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Brazil; B.S. in production engineering, UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, Brazil

Languages

Portuguese

Selected Work

  • Nowak, S. A., Nascimento de Lima, P., & Vardavas, R, "Optimal non-pharmaceutical pandemic response strategies depend critically on time horizons and costs," Scientific Reports, 2023
  • Nascimento de Lima, P., van den Puttelaar, R., Hahn, A. I., Harlass, M., Collier, N., Ozik, J., . . . Rutter, C. M., "Projected long-termeffects of colorectal cancer screening disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic," eLife, 2023
  • Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Jonathan Lamb, Osonde Osoba, Jonathan Welburn, "Modeling America's racial wealth disparities: Mathematical models help chart pathways for closing racial wealth gaps," Notices of the American Mathematical Society, 2023
  • Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Robert Lempert, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker, Jeanne Ringel, Carolyn M. Rutter, Jonathan Ozik, Nicholson Collier, "Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-Dominated COVID-19 exit strategies," PLoS ONE, 2021
  • Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker, Jeanne S. Ringel, Robert J. Lempert, Carolyn M. Rutter, Jonathan Ozik, Reopening Under Uncertainty: Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Exit Strategy, RAND Corporation (PE-PEA1080-1), 2021
  • Raffaele Vardavas, Aaron Strong, Jennifer Bouey, Jonathan Welburn, Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Lawrence Baker, Keren Zhu, Michelle Priest, Lynn Hu, Jeanne S. Ringel, The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19: A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers, RAND Corporation (TL-TLA173-1), 2020

Authored by Pedro Nascimento de Lima

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