Brian Michael Jenkins — Publications

View Profile »

An American Looks at the First Year of Israel's War with Hamas and Hezbollah

2024
Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics

2022
The Atomization of Political Violence

2021
The Collapse of Comity: Perilous Times in the Third Turbulent Century of Our Political Experiment

2021
Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

2021
Exiting Extremism: What Binds People to Extremist Groups and How Organizations Help Them Leave

2021
The Origin and Evolution of the RAND Corporation's Terrorism Databases: Defining and Building a New Field of Knowledge

2021
The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism

2020
Paths to Destruction: A Group Portrait of America's Jihadists — Comparing Jihadist Travelers with Domestic Plotters

2020
Options for Dealing with Islamic State Foreign Fighters Currently Detained in Syria

2019
Waging War Beyond the Battlefield: Remarks at the Celebration of 50 Years at RAND

2019
Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans?

2018
Bush, Obama, And Trump: The Evolution Of U.S. Counterterrorist Policy Since 9/11

2017
Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum

2017
Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum

2017
Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions

2017
The Origins of America's Jihadists

2017
Think Mass Shootings Are Terrorism? Careful What You Wish For

2017
Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013

2016
Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet

2016
Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened

2016
A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis

2016
A Saudi-Led Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Welcome Muscle in the Fight Against Terrorism, Desert Mirage, or Bad Idea?

2016
Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed By Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq

2015
The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad

2015
The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning Western Fighters

2015
How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq

2015
The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security

2015
Inspiration, Not Infiltration: Jihadist Conspirators in the United States

2015
There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq: Addendum

2015
There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq

2015
War by What Means, According to Whose Rules? The Challenge for Democracies Facing Asymmetric Conflicts: Proceedings of a RAND–Israel Democracy Institute Workshop, December 3–4, 2014

2015
Brothers Killing Brothers: The Current Infighting Will Test al Qaeda's Brand

2014
The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War

2014
The Future of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act

2014
Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats and the Continuing Challenges of Domestic Intelligence Collection and Information Sharing

2014
When Jihadis Come Marching Home: The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria and Iraq

2014
An Incremental Tyranny

2013
The Role of Terrorism and Terror in Syria's Civil War

2013
The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States

2013
When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars

2013
Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory?

2012
Aviation Security: After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review

2012
New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat

2012
New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: Addendum

2012
Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy: Addendum

2011
Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy

2011
Is Al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working?

2011
The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism

2011
RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011

2011
Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11

2011
The Tenth Year: A Briefing on Terrorism Issues to New Members of the 112th Congress

2011
The al Qaeda-Inspired Terrorist Threat: An Appreciation of the Current Situation

2010
No Path to Glory: Deterring Homegrown Terrorism

2010
Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001

2010
Could Mexico Fail?

2009
Going Jihad: The Fort Hood Slayings and Home-Grown Terrorism

2009
The Lessons of Mumbai

2009
Savage Struggle on the Border: Can Mexico Fail?

2009
Terrorists Can Think Strategically: Lessons Learned From the Mumbai Attacks

2009
U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions -- Strategic Choices

2009
RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008

2008
Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

2008
Basic Principles for Homeland Security

2007
Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment

2007
Defining the Role of a National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism

2007
Fear Cannot Counter Terror

2006
The New Age of Terrorism

2006
RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 2006

2006
Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves

2006
Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror

2005
RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004

2004
Terrorism and the Security of Public Surface Transportation

2004
RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003

2003
Remarks Before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

2003
Countering al Qaeda: An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy

2002
Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda

2002
RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002

2002
RAND Review: Vol. 25, No. 3, Fall 2001

2001
Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats

2001
Countering the New Terrorism

1999
Getting the Hostages Out: Who Turns the Key?

1990
The Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy: Report on a May 1987 Conference

1989
The Possibility of Soviet-American Cooperation Against Terrorism

1989
Terrorism: Policy Issues for the Bush Administration

1989
The Terrorist Threat to Commercial Aviation

1989
Nicaraguan Security Policy: Trends and Projections

1988
Potential Threats to Offshore Platforms

1988
The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: A Reexamination

1988
Should Our Arsenal Against Terrorism Include Assassination?

1987
The Aftermath of the Achille Lauro

1985
Colombia's Bold Gamble for Peace

1985
A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Terrorist Groups

1985
The Future Course of International Terrorism

1985
Future Trends in International Terrorism

1985
International Terrorism: The Other World War

1985
The Likelihood of Nuclear Terrorism

1985
Military Force May Not Be Ruled Out

1985
Combatting Terrorism Becomes a War

1984
Improving the Means for Intergovernmental Communications in Crisis

1984
The Lessons of Beirut: Testimony Before the Long Commission

1984
Testimony Before the Committee on the Judiciary

1984
Trends in International Terrorism, 1982 and 1983

1984
U.S. Policy for Central America: A Briefing

1984
A Chronology of Terrorist Attacks and Other Criminal Actions Against Maritime Targets

1983
Let's Not Punish Ourselves for Beirut

1983
New Modes of Conflict

1983
A Review of Recent Trends in International Terrorism and Nuclear Incidents Abroad

1983
Some Reflections on Recent Trends in Terrorism

1983
Subnational Conflict in the Mediterranean Region

1983
Terrorism: Between Prudence and Paranoia

1983
The Appeal of Nuclear Crimes to the Spectrum of Potential Adversaries

1982
Diplomats on the Front Line

1982
Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Volume I, Effects on the Incidence, Investigation, and Prosecution of Terrorist Activity

1982
Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Executive Summary

1982
Talking to Terrorists

1982
Terrorism and Beyond : An International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict

1982
Combatting Terrorism: Some Policy Implications

1981
Embassies Under Siege : A Review of 48 Embassy Takeovers, 1971-1980

1981
Fighting Terrorism: An Enduring Task

1981
International Terrorism: Choosing the Right Target

1981
Options for U.S. Policy on Terrorism

1981
The Psychological Implications of Media-Covered Terrorism

1981
A Strategy for Combatting Terrorism

1981
Testimony Before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Regarding Senate Bill Against Terrorism, January 27, 1978

1981
Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs

1980
Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs: Executive Summary

1980
The Potential Criminal Adversaries of Nuclear Programs: A Portrait

1980
The Study of Terrorism: Definitional Problems

1980
Terrorism in the 1980s

1980
Terrorism in the United States

1980
The Terrorist Mindset and Terrorist Decisionmaking: Two Areas of Ignorance

1979
Terrorists Seize Hostages in Arcadia, Laconia Commandos on Alert: A Scenario for Simulation in Negotiations with Terrorists Holding Hostages

1979
Traditions and Patterns of Vietnamese History

1979
Attributes of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs

1978
The Fall of South Vietnam: Statements by Vietnamese Military and Civilian Leaders

1978
International Terrorism: Trends and Potentialities

1978
Combatting International Terrorism: The Role of Congress

1977
Heuristic Modeling Using Rule-Based Computer Systems

1977
Numbered Lives: Some Statistical Observations From 77 International Hostage Episodes

1977
The Potential for Nuclear Terrorism

1977
RAND's Research on Terrorism

1977
U.S. Preparation for Future Low-Level Conflict

1977
Hostage Survival: Some Preliminary Observations

1976
International Terrorism: A Chronology (1974 Supplement)

1976
Terrorism and the Nuclear Safeguards Issue

1976
High Technology Terrorism and Surrogate War: The Impact of New Technology on Low-Level Violence

1975
Hostages and Their Captors: Friends and Lovers

1975
International Terrorism: A Chronology, 1968-1974

1975
Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

1975
International Terrorism: A New Kind of Warfare

1974
Should Corporations Be Prevented from Paying Ransom?

1974
Soldiers Versus Gunmen: The Challenge of Urban Guerrilla Warfare

1974
Terrorism and Kidnapping

1974
Terrorism Works--Sometimes

1974
After the War

1973
''A Route for the Enemy To Escape,'' — Hanoi's View of the Ceasefire

1973
Forecasting Vietnam's Future: The Next Stage in the War

1972
Giap and the Seventh Son

1972
An Urban Strategy for Guerrillas and Governments

1972
Why the North Vietnamese Will Keep Fighting

1972
The Five Stages of Urban Guerrilla Warfare: Challenge of the 1970s

1971
A People's Army for South Vietnam: A Vietnamese Solution

1971
Structure and Strategy for Vietnam in the 1970's

1970
The Unchangeable War

1970
Why the North Vietnamese Keep Fighting

1970

Federally Funded Research Divisions

Social and Economic Policy Divisions

International

Brian Michael Jenkins — Publications

An American Looks at the First Year of Israel's War with Hamas and Hezbollah

Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics

The Atomization of Political Violence

The Collapse of Comity: Perilous Times in the Third Turbulent Century of Our Political Experiment

Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

Exiting Extremism: What Binds People to Extremist Groups and How Organizations Help Them Leave

The Origin and Evolution of the RAND Corporation's Terrorism Databases: Defining and Building a New Field of Knowledge

The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism

Paths to Destruction: A Group Portrait of America's Jihadists — Comparing Jihadist Travelers with Domestic Plotters

Options for Dealing with Islamic State Foreign Fighters Currently Detained in Syria

Waging War Beyond the Battlefield: Remarks at the Celebration of 50 Years at RAND

Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans?

Bush, Obama, And Trump: The Evolution Of U.S. Counterterrorist Policy Since 9/11

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions

The Origins of America's Jihadists

Think Mass Shootings Are Terrorism? Careful What You Wish For

Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet

Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened

A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis

A Saudi-Led Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Welcome Muscle in the Fight Against Terrorism, Desert Mirage, or Bad Idea?

Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed By Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq

The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad

The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning Western Fighters

How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq

The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security

Inspiration, Not Infiltration: Jihadist Conspirators in the United States

There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq: Addendum

There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq

War by What Means, According to Whose Rules? The Challenge for Democracies Facing Asymmetric Conflicts: Proceedings of a RAND–Israel Democracy Institute Workshop, December 3–4, 2014

Brothers Killing Brothers: The Current Infighting Will Test al Qaeda's Brand

The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War

The Future of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act

Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats and the Continuing Challenges of Domestic Intelligence Collection and Information Sharing

When Jihadis Come Marching Home: The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria and Iraq

An Incremental Tyranny

The Role of Terrorism and Terror in Syria's Civil War

The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States

When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars

Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory?

Aviation Security: After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: Addendum

Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy: Addendum

Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy

Is Al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working?

The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism

RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011

Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11

The Tenth Year: A Briefing on Terrorism Issues to New Members of the 112th Congress

The al Qaeda-Inspired Terrorist Threat: An Appreciation of the Current Situation

No Path to Glory: Deterring Homegrown Terrorism

Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001

Could Mexico Fail?

Going Jihad: The Fort Hood Slayings and Home-Grown Terrorism

The Lessons of Mumbai

Savage Struggle on the Border: Can Mexico Fail?

Terrorists Can Think Strategically: Lessons Learned From the Mumbai Attacks

U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions -- Strategic Choices

RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

Basic Principles for Homeland Security

Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment

Defining the Role of a National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism

Fear Cannot Counter Terror

The New Age of Terrorism

RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 2006

Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves

Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror

RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004

Terrorism and the Security of Public Surface Transportation

RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003

Remarks Before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

Countering al Qaeda: An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy