An American Looks at the First Year of Israel's War with Hamas and Hezbollah

Beyond the opportunity to hear from an always impressive lineup of speakers and to directly engage with leading analysts and government officials from all parts of the world, one of the privileges of attending the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) World Summits over the years, for me, was a regular invitation from Shabtai Shavit, Chairman of the ICT's Board of Advisors and former Director of the Mossad, to get together for several hours to discuss current issues.

Often these talks took place at his home. This was not merely two old guys complaining that the world is going to hell, but an always challenging review of trends and threats. As evident in his book, Shabtai was a methodical thinker who addressed both the strategic and the often-difficult moral considerations of any course of action. A demanding interlocutor, Shabtai was also a dear friend who is deeply missed.

In preparation for these meetings, I would often come to his house with a list of points I hoped to discuss, and on occasion, Shabtai prepared memos on matters he wanted to review. In keeping with that practice, I have prepared a preliminary list of the takeaways from the current multifront war in the Middle East. These are not conclusions. Rather, they are areas that, in my view, warrant further inquiry in order to identify consequences, provoke creative thinking, and distill lessons to be learned, even as the conflicts continue.

October 7 will be indelibly etched in the memories of all Israelis, as 9/11 is for Americans. To equal the ratio of more than 1,200 deaths as a percentage of Israel's smaller population, close to 40,000 would have had to die in the United States. I can only imagine what the U.S. response would have been had that many Americans died.

The sad anniversary of the October 7 attack is a remembrance of a tragedy that has led to Israel's longest war since its war of independence. For Israelis, the current conflict has revived existential fears, confirmed military maxims, and exacerbated the country's moral and political divisions. Observers beyond Israel see fundamental changes in warfare, cascading political and economic consequences, new terrorist threats, and moral dilemmas.