Paul K. Davis — Publications
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Broad and Selectively Deep: An MRMPM Paradigm for Supporting Analysis
2023
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Potential Implications of the Russia–Ukraine War for Northeast Asia
2023
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Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches
2022
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An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
2022
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Artificial Intelligence for Wargaming and Modeling
2022
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A New Ethical Principle for Analysts Who Use Models
2022
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Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
2022
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Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
2021
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Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms
2021
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Modeling Infectious Behaviors: The Need to Account for Behavioral Adaptation in COVID-19 Models
2021
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Reforming the Teaching and Conducting of Policy Studies to Deal Better with Complex Systems
2021
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Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand
2020
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An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation: New Data and New Challenges
2019
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Ethical and Privacy Issues in Social-Behavioral Research
2019
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Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
2019
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Improving Social-Behavioral Modeling
2019
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Lessons on Decision Aiding for Social-Behavioral Modeling
2019
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Panel Discussion: Moving Social-Behavioral Modeling Forward
2019
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Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems
2019
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An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation: New Data and New Challenges
2018
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Defense Planning When Major Changes Are Needed
2018
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Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling
2018
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Illustrating a Model-Game-Model Paradigm for Using Human Wargames in Analysis
2017
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Capabilities for Joint Analysis in the Department of Defense: Rethinking Support for Strategic Analysis
2016
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Deterrence and Stability for the Korean Peninsula
2016
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Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
2016
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Simple Culture-Informed Models of the Adversary
2016
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Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence
2016
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Causal Models and Exploratory Analysis in Heterogeneous Information Fusion for Detecting Potential Terrorists
2015
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Using Causal Models in Heterogeneous Information Fusion to Detect Terrorists
2015
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Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity
2014
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Deterrence, Influence, Cyber Attack, and Cyberwar
2014
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Toward Theory for Dissuasion (or Deterrence) by Denial: Using Simple Cognitive Models of the Adversary to Inform Strategy
2014
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A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling
2013
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Using Behavioral Indicators to Detect Potential Violent Acts
2013
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Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts: A Review of the Science Base
2013
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Advancing Clinical Decision Support Using Lessons from Outside of Healthcare: An Interdisciplinary Systematic Review
2012
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Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects
2012
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Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security
2012
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Toward an Analytic Basis for Influence Strategy in Counterterrorism
2012
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Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism
2012
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Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction
2011
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The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning
2011
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Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy
2011
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Structuring Analysis to Support Future Decisions about Nuclear Forces and Postures
2011
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Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-Entry
2010
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Military Transformation? Which Transformation, and What Lies Ahead?
2010
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Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges
2010
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Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis
2010
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Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda
2010
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RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual
2009
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Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
2009
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Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models
2009
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Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis
2008
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Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations
2008
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Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening
2008
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Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense
2008
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Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options
2008
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Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty
2008
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Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation
2007
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Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments
2007
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Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking
2007
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Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
2005
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Introduction to Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis
2005
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A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User’s Manual
2005
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Challenges in Virtual Collaboration: Videoconferencing, Audioconferencing, and Computer-Mediated Communications
2004
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Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations
2004
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Modern Decision Support Science Suggests New Methods and Tools to Support Military Decisionmaking
2004
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Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models
2003
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Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis
2003
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Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals
2003
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Military Applications of Simulation: A Selected Review
2003
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Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases
2003
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Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling
2003
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New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
2003
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RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003
2003
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Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation
2002
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Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda
2002
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Integrating Transformation Programs
2002
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Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf
2002
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Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community
2001
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Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling
2001
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Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precision Fires: A Stochastic Multiresolution Model (PEM) Calibrated to High-Resolution Simulation
2000
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EXHALT: Interdiction Model for Exploring Halt Capabilities in a Large Scenario Space
2000
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Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts
2000
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Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force"
1999
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Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM)
1998
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Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System
1998
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Transforming the Force: Suggestions for DoD Strategy
1998
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Exploratory Analysis of ''The Halt Problem": A Briefing on Methods and Initial Insights
1997
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Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making
1997
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Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
1997
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Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework
1996
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A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning
1996
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Aggregation, Disaggregation, and the 3:1 Rules in Ground Combat
1995
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Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies
1994
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New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough
1994
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Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era: Giving Meaning to Flexibility, Adaptiveness, and Robustness of Capability
1993
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An Introduction to Variable-Resolution Modeling and Cross-Resolution Model Connection
1993
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Proceedings of Conference on Variable-Resolution Modeling, Washington DC, 5-6 May 1992
1993
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Stopping the North Korean Nuclear Program
1993
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Toward a Comprehensive Environment for Computer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
1993
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Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the ''Old World Order''
1992
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Generalizing Concepts and Methods of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) for Military Simulations
1992
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Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling: Motivations, Issues, and Principles
1992
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The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling
1991
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Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War with Saddam Hussein
1991
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Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough?
1991
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Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion
1991
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An Analyst's Primer for the RAND/ABEL Programming Language
1990
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Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic Environment
1990
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Representing Operational Strategies and Command-Control in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
1990
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Central Region Stability in a Deep-Cuts Regime
1989
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A Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Central Europe
1989
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Modeling of Soft Factors in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
1989
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National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty
1989
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Simulated Central Region Conflicts at Nominal Parity and Low Force Levels
1989
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Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
1989
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Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking
1989
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Variables Affecting Central-Region Stability: The 'Operational Minimum' and Other Issues at Low Force Levels
1989
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Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation
1988
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Explanation Mechanisms for Knowledge-Based Models in the RAND Strategy Assessment System
1988
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Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning
1988
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Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0)
1988
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Overview of System Software in the RAND Strategy Assessment System
1988
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The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the NATO/Pact Central Region Balance
1988
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Toward a Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Europe's Central Region
1988
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Analytic War Gaming with the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
1987
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Formalization of Tradeoff Rules and Other Techniques for Comprehending Complex Rule-Based Models
1987
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Modeling Wartime Decisionmaking at the National Command Level
1987
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A New Analytic Technique for the Study of Deterrence, Escalation Control, and War Termination
1986
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A New Methodology for Modeling National Command Level Decisionmaking in War Games and Simulations
1986
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Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation
1985
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Characterizing the Temperaments of Red and Blue Agents: Models of Soviet and U.S. Decisionmakers
1985
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Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning
1985
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Search for a Red Agent to be Used in War Games and Simulations
1985
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Concepts and Models of Escalation
1984
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RAND's Experience in Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Military-Political War Gaming
1984
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The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis
1984
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Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues
1983
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The RAND Strategy Assessment Center: An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options
1983
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Treatment of Escalation in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center
1983
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Concepts for improving the military content of automated war games
1982
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Improving the Military Content of Strategy Analysis Using Automated War Games: A Technical Approach and an Agenda for Research
1982
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Observations on the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force: Origins, Direction, and Mission
1982
