Scenarios for the Future of U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability and Arms Control

This paper explores the possibilities for future arms control between the United States and Russia. The findings are based on a series of discussions involving nongovernmental experts from the two countries. These experts sought to develop a shared understanding of the ways in which the bilateral strategic environment could evolve over the coming five to ten years. They then identified possible steps the United States and Russia could take to strengthen stability and reduce the risk of escalation. Although the participants acknowledged that there are profound disagreements between their governments, they deliberately focused on the future of the bilateral strategic relationship and possible arms control measures in that future context — not on the present impasse.

By the end of 2024, the architecture of arms control agreements that provided stability and predictability to the U.S.-Soviet and subsequent U.S.-Russia strategic relationship will have all but collapsed. The future of U.S.-Russia arms control therefore remains uncertain. Moreover, it is highly dependent on broader disagreements between the governments that are largely unrelated to arms control. It is certain, however, that the bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia will continue to be marked by strategic competition. Given the United States and Russia's unique strategic interdependence as the world's two largest nuclear powers, this competition will require stabilizing measures to avoid worst-case outcomes. The participants in this project attempted to identify these measures so that when the time is right, no matter the strategic environment, their analysis would be useful for policymakers on both sides.