Averting Great-Power War

A CM-11 Brave Tiger tank fires during a live fire Han Kuang military exercise which simulates the PLA invading the island, in Pingtung, Taiwan

Photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

NSRD conducts research across multiple disciplines to inform U.S. government policy decisions on critical challenges such as military technology competition, nuclear strategy and posture, and the economic and trade implications of geostrategic competition. NSRD’s four research programs undertake projects that contribute to this effort.

• What are Chinese and Russian perspectives on power, war, and domestic politics?
• What are the implications, for the Navy, of China’s military strategy and modernization efforts?
• Has DoD allocated sufficient logistics personnel and force structure to the Indo-Pacific area of responsibility to counter and defeat a peer adversary?
• Considering Russia and China’s evolving nuclear capabilities and doctrine, how should the effects of nuclear weapons be integrated into operational level wargaming?

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  China's Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic

  China's growing presence in the Arctic and overall approach to strategic competition have heightened U.S. concerns about China becoming a security and military actor in the region aided by Russia. How might China's Arctic activities support its security goals?

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  A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine: Trump Needs a Realistic Game Plan, Strong Incentives, and Patience

  For those seeking to end Russia's devastating war in Ukraine, the election of Donald Trump presents a crucial opportunity. In direct contrast to U.S. President Joe Biden, whose administration has held to a policy of unwavering support for Ukraine without pushing for a defined endgame to the war, Trump has focused almost exclusively on that endgame.

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  Scenarios for the Future of U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability and Arms Control

  This paper explores the possibilities for future arms control between the United States and Russia. These findings are based on a series of discussions involving nongovernmental experts from the two countries. They developed scenarios for the bilateral strategic environment over the coming five to ten years and identified steps the two governments could take to strengthen stability and reduce the risk of escalation.

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  Competing Visions of Restraint for U.S. Foreign Policy

  This brief summarizes ideas that have led to support for a U.S. grand strategy of restraint, which involves using diplomacy to settle differences, reducing forward presence, downgrading or ending commitments, and raising the bar for the use of force.

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  Competing Visions of Restraint

  Given that restraint is a key position in the grand strategy debate, this article explores the variations within restraint's big tent in greater detail. Drawing on writings by and interviews with advocates of restraint, researchers identify the underlying beliefs that have led these disparate groups to converge on restraint.

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  How China-Russia Relations Might Shape the Arctic's Future

  The China-Russia relationship is a factor in the Arctic's uncertain future and U.S. interests. Russia offers opportunities for China to establish presence in the Arctic, and China's finance and technology has the potential to reshape the region's physical, communications, and economic environments.

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  U.S. Economic Policies Regarding China Have Had Mixed Success

  A review of economic policies toward China pursued from 2017 to 2024 finds that they achieved limited progress in promoting fair trade but a higher degree of success in defending U.S. economic interests. How could the policies be refined to achieve better outcomes?

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  The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

  A RAND conference explored the perspectives of U.S. and Japanese specialists, as well as representatives of other regional countries, and contributed to public understanding of the key issues confronting Washington and Tokyo in the Indo-Pacific.

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  AI Security: Safeguarding Large Language Models and Why This Matters for the Future of Geopolitics

  RAND gathered experts in artificial intelligence (AI) and global security for a moderated panel discussion on the increasingly important topic of securing AI and the implications for national and homeland security.