About
RAND Global and Emerging Risks delivers rigorous and objective public policy research on the most consequential challenges to civilization and global security.
The division addresses large-scale risks that may be catastrophic or existential for civilization—well beyond the security interests of any one nation. The international security, public safety, and societal challenges these risks present exceeds the responsibility of any one nation, let alone government or department around which most RAND research divisions are organized. They require all of society to respond, including the public and private sectors, individuals, and trans-national entities.
The emerging attributes of these risks means there is uncertainty about their character—the way in which they may manifest, the probability that they arise, and the consequences if they do. So too is there uncertainty on how policymakers and the public can address these risks, whether these risks can be avoided or mitigated, and the corresponding tradeoffs that alternative approaches would entail.
The division, therefore, seeks to inform both policymakers and the broader public. Moreover, it serves as a crossroads for RAND research on global and emerging risks to maintain a concerted focus on these global security challenges, drawing on expertise across the organization.
Rationale
Global and Emerging Risks’ establishment is predicated on the assumption that policymakers—and the global society—lack sufficient understanding of the global and emerging risks confronting humanity to tackle them with confidence. As a result, society is failing to prioritize prudent steps to reduce these risks relative to their potential consequences.
The reasons for this are many and include: lack of information about global and emerging risks or risk management strategies; human biases that limit our ability to comprehend massive consequences and create barriers to organizations taking action; similar human and organizational biases that direct priority to other immediate concerns; and an underdeveloped analytic toolkit that would create clearer and better understanding of these risks and risk management strategies.
Strategic Imperative
Global and Emerging Risks aims to facilitate RAND research that concentrates on the most consequential problems underserved by others; create opportunities for foundational research and “deep think” on core research areas; forge a hub of intellectual exchange among scholars and practitioners, both inside and outside of RAND; provide existing—and develop new—analytic methods to aid policymakers’ understanding of global and emerging risks and potential solutions; and develop the next generation of strategists for geopolitical and technological security dynamics.
With this broader perspective we can complete empirical research to objectively describe risks and how we perceive them and develop prescriptive analytic tools and decision processes to help society better align decisions and behaviors.
